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Investment Opportunities in Turkmenistan: Political Risks Analysis

Eugene Minchenko, Kirill Petrov, Alexander Zotin, Yuri Romanenko
The International Institute of Political Expertise in March-April 2011 organized the research of the investment opportunities in Turkmenistan. This study is the first among the research series by the IIPE on investment climate in the post soviet countries.
The investment climate in Turkmenistan remains unfavorable with a tendency to worsen

The research objectives were to identify successful ways of behavior in Turkmenistan as well as analyze the current and potential political risks, and suggest measures to minimize these risks. An additional stimulus to conduct this research in autoritarian Turkmenistan, an abundant with resources country, was the wave of revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa. Consequently, the question has arised regarding the stability of the existing political regime in Turkmenistan.

The research involved an analysis of public sources (research and reports of international institutions and media publications) and a major survey among international experts. The survey included sixty participants. Among them, 18 experts participated in a comprehensive ‘deep’ interview and 43 filled in a questionnaire.

The experts were comprised of analysts and business representatives from 19 countries (Azerbaijan, Great Britain, Germany, Israel, Iran, Kazakhstan, Republic of South Korea, Norway, United Arab Emirates, Poland, Russia, the United States, Singapore, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, France, Czech Republic, and Sweden).

The majority intervenes (first of all, representatives of companies, who work in Turkmenistan) preferred to remain anonymous, which, in our opinion, indicates the dependency of the business climate in Turkmenistan on subjective factors.

Our analysis includes four sections: general evaluation of the investment climate in Turkmenistan, analysis of relations with other countries and international companies, evaluation of attractive industries and large-scale projects, as well as analysis of external and internal political risks for the regime's stability.

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