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Gas agreement

Broader context

• 40 bln losses of Russia is a mith
• Lot of russian shareholders in metallurgy
• Interest in chemicals
• Interest in chemicals
• Cooperation in nuclear, aviation, shipbuilding, oil
• Fleet is impotent too

Elite game

• Defeat of globalists and importers
• Win of exporters
• New Ukranian informal coalition (metallurgy, chemicals, nuclear, coal, engeneering ) - businessmen from Party of Regions, Our Ukraine, Timoshenko
• New Russian informal coalition ( Gazprom + Sechin + private business)

Risks

• Problems with Rosukrenergo and Privat (11, 8,5, 7,5 bln bcm )
• Decreasing gas transit
• Fear of Russian expansion
• Struggle inside of coalitiion
• Intertanional competition (new metallurgy plants in Asia)
• Change of regime in Ukraine

Questions

• Possibility of reexport . It is prohibited but…
• Success of reforms
• Place of Europe
• Role of US